Economic responses were estimated from stochastically simulated dairy herds using genetic evaluations of proven or young US Holstein sires available in January of 1996. Conversion equations, economic indices, and genetic, economic and managerial parameters for milk, fat and protein production in Italy, The Netherlands and the United States, and for milk yield in Mexico were used in calculation of sire profit and response for each country. Discounted cumulative revenue and semen costs to planning horizons of 10 and 20 years from a continuous selection model were used to estimate profit. Proven and young sires selected on profit or the option of using 20 randomly chosen young sires at low semen cost per dose were evaluated. Results were obtained from 1000 replicates for combinations of type and number of sires selected per year and cow herd size in each country. Results were evaluated with three degrees of risk aversion; risk neutral (profit), moderate risk aversion (LCL95) (lower 95% confidence limit for profit), and high risk aversion (utility) (profit -.06*variance of profit). Use of a 10-year planning horizon, or selection in countries with lower absolute economic responses, would favor use of randomly chosen young sires. Use of selected proven and young sires was generally superior to use of randomly chosen young sires for profit and LCL95 at year 20 for all combinations studied, but was inferior for utility at year 10. Optimum decisions were different for different countries, planning horizons and economic and management conditions. Effect of herd size on the ranking of strategies was small.
Proceedings of the World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production, Volume 23: Opening: plenary; technology; transfer; beef cattle; dairy cattle; pigs., , 327–330, 1998
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